October 06, 2008 07:42 PM UTC

5-Point Udall Lead Curiously Spun By Denver Post

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• by: Colorado Pols

In the strictest sense of the word “reporting,” the Denver Post reports:

Democrat Mark Udall still leads among Colorado’s likely voters, but his Republican rival, Bob Schaffer, is narrowing the gap, according to a Denver Post poll.

Udall, who had been up by as many as 10 percentage points in previous polls, is favored by 43 percent of registered voters surveyed, to Schaffer’s 38 percent.

But with 14 percent of respondents saying they haven’t made up their minds less than a month before the election, it’s clear the race is much tighter than it appeared to be over the summer, said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research…

Schaffer’s campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, even said he is “ecstatic” that the Republican has cut Udall’s lead in half. [Pols emphasis]

“Voters are starting to cut through the negative attacks against Bob Schaffer and seeing him as a mainstream candidate,” Wadhams said.

Here’s the problem: the overall polling curve has had Udall in a trading range between 4 and 8 percent above Schaffer for months. In August, for example, multiple polls showed Udall with a six point lead. There have been outliers in both directions, but the overall trend is clear. Schaffer’s campaign knows this, and so does Post reporter Karen Auge. And still we get this breathless story about ‘big poll movement’ in the Senate race.

Like we say, it’s a little curious, and it seems to be increasingly the case that curiously spun stories like this one are penned by accomodating Post reporters.